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真的有55%的叙利亚人希望阿萨德留下吗?  

2012-02-27 00:24:00|  分类: 阿拉伯的故事 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Do 55% of Syrians really want President Assad to stay?

真的有55%的叙利亚人希望阿萨德留下吗?

 

来源:BBC 

英文网址:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17155349

完成时间:2012-02-25,01:33 GMT(格林尼治标准时间)

作者:Charlotte McDonald(BBC)

翻译:@skipper79 http://weibo.com/u/2077625315?topnav=1&wvr=3.6 

 

 

An opinion poll was widely reported last month as evidence that 55% of Syrians think President Bashar al-Assad should not resign. But does the claim stand up to scrutiny?

上个月的一个民调称,有55%的叙利亚人认为总统巴沙尔·阿萨德不应该辞职,这一结果被广泛报道。不过,这个结果靠得住吗? 

 

The world is watching Syria, where every day there are new scenes of horror as the violence between protesters and the regime's security forces continues.

国际社会正在注视着叙利亚,抗议者和当局安全部队的冲突还在继续,每天都有新的恐怖景象。

 

Against this backdrop, some commentators have picked up on a striking statistic - that 55% of Syrians want President Assad to stay in power.

针对此背景,一些评论人拿出了一个引人注意的统计结果,即有55%的叙利亚人希望阿萨德继续当权。

 

In a column in the UK's Guardian newspaper, the statistic was used to suggest that the Western media was mis-reporting the situation in Syria, suppressing "inconvenient facts" for the purposes of propaganda.

在英国《卫报》的一个专栏中,这个统计结果让人想起西方媒体对叙利亚情况进行误导报告,它们为了宣传目的掩盖了“引起不便的实情”。

 

The statistic has been reported widely elsewhere, from the New York Times, to Al Jazeera (in Arabic) Iranian owned Press TV, and Syrian news sites.

从《纽约时报》到半岛电视台(阿拉伯语),再到伊朗英语新闻电视台和叙利亚的新闻网站,这个统计结果在其他地方也被广为流传。

 

So what was this poll and who carried it out?

那么这一民调是怎样的呢?是谁进行这个调查的呢?

 

It was an internet survey of the Arab world by YouGov Siraj in December. It covered just more than 1,000 people in 18 countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

这次民调是调查机构YouGov Siraj在12月份进行的,是一次在阿拉伯世界的网上调查,受访者人数超过1,000人,他们来自中东、北非18个国家。

 

The central question was: "In your opinion should Syria's President Assad resign?"

其主要问题就是:“在你看来,阿萨德是否应该辞职?”

 

Across the whole region, the overall finding was that 81% of people polled thought President Assad should go.

纵观整个地区,民调结果显示81%的人希望阿萨德总统下台。

 

But the polling company also stated: "Respondents in Syria are more supportive of their president. 55% do not believe Assad should resign."

不过,该调查公司还声明:“来自叙利亚的受访者更加支持他们的总统,有55%的人认为阿萨德不应该辞职。”

 

Looking closely at the survey report, it does not say explicitly how many of the 1,000 people who responded were from Syria. But it does say that 211 were polled in the Levant region, 46% of whom were in Syria.

仔细看一看这个调查报告,它并没有说明在这1,000人中有多少受访者是来自叙利亚的。不过它表示,民调中有211人来自地中海东部地区,这其中的46%来自叙利亚。

 

Doing the sums, this suggests that only 97 people took part. When the BBC checked with YouGov Siraj for the exact breakdown, the company said that in fact there were 98 respondents from Syria (the difference arising from the fact that averages given in the survey report were rounded).

这样算一下的话,只有97名(来自叙利亚的)受访者。BBC向YouGov Siraj咨询了准确数字,该调查公司称,来自叙利亚的的受访者实际上有98人(计算得出的97人与实际的98人之间的差异是由于根据民调报告计算平均取整造成的)。

 

This is a very low sample according to the managing director of survey company ORB, Johnny Heald, who has been carrying out polls in the Middle East for many years.

调查公司ORB曾在中东进行过多年民调,其常务董事Johnny Heald认为,这个民调结果可靠性很低。

 

"When we poll and we want to find out what Libyans think, or what Syrians think, we would rarely do anything less than 1,000 interviews," he says.

他说:“我们进行民调是想找出利比亚人或叙利亚人的想法,我们极少进行低于1,000名受访者的民调。”

 

"One thousand is the generally accepted industry minimum to be able to speak confidently about what people from a particular country think about an issue.

“在这个业界,要可靠表明某一特定国家民众对一件事情的想法,一千人通常被看作最低底线。”

 

"If you say that this poll covers people from 18 countries, then that's fine. But you need to be very careful when you interpret the findings.

“如果你说这个民调涵盖18个国家的民众,那么也行,但是当解释这个结果的时候,你需要非常小心。”

 

"It is not good to say that 55% of Syrians, for example, think that Assad should stay when only 97 people were asked that question."

“认为55%的叙利亚人支持阿萨德应该留下,这是不对的,比如想一下,当时只有97名(来自叙利亚的)人被问到了这个问题。”

 

But he has another criticism - according to UN figures, only 18% of people in Syria have access to the internet, which means that the sample polled is biased towards those who can get online.

Johnny Heald还提出了其他异议,比如根据联合国的资料,只有18%的叙利亚人可以上网,那就意味着这个民调倾向于那些能够上网的人群。

 

The people who conducted the survey at YouGov Siraj, the Dubai-based arm of a UK polling company, say the poll was not intended to be representative of all Syrians.

YouGov Siraj是一家英国调查公司在迪拜开设的部门,进行这次民调的人员称,该调查不代表所有叙利亚人。

 

They too say the sample was too low for this and that internet penetration in the country is not good enough.

有鉴于此和叙利亚互联网并不普及,他们也表示,调查结果的可靠性不高。

 

This is why they referred to "respondents from Syria" rather than referring to "Syrians", they say.

他们称,这就是为什么民调所提到的是“来自叙利亚的受访者”,而不是“叙利亚人”。

 

However, the Doha Debates TV programme, which commissioned the poll and published its findings, were not as sensitive to the distinction.

不过,委托这次民调的多哈电视辩论节目还是公布了其中的调查结果,它对这其中的差别并不敏感。

 

The figure is described on its site as: "Syrians are more supportive of their president with 55% not wanting him to resign."

在其网站上该调查结果被形容为:“55%的叙利亚人支持他们的总统,不希望他辞职。”

 

In a statement, the pollsters at YouGov Siraj said that with hindsight they wish they had been clearer: "To the layman, there seems very little difference between the two expressions but for researchers, the difference is huge.

对于这一声明,YouGov Siraj民意分析人员后见之明地表示,他们已经表明了态度,他们认为:“对于这个业界以外的人,两种表述之间的差异微乎其微,但是对于研究者,这一差异很大。”

 

"I think we should have stressed the difference much more to our client (or simply not shown the Syria data, as there was always a chance it might be misinterpreted)."

“我想,我们更应该向我们的委托人强调这一差异(或是不能简单地给出这个叙利亚民调结果,因为它被误读的可能性非常大。)”

 

When we asked the organisers of the Doha Debates about the statistic, they insisted that despite the small sample size, the result was "of interest".

我们向多哈电视辩论节目就这一民调进行了询问,他们坚称,尽管这一调查规模小,但是结果“让人感兴趣”。

 

They say the figures and polling data are freely available for people to draw their own conclusions.

他们表示,结果和民调资料来自随机人员和那些人自己的结论。

 

Is it OK to put out a figure based on such a low sample?

那么公布这个低可靠性的民调结果好吗?

 

Johnny Heald thinks it is acceptable for pollsters to pull out data from a broader poll, because often it is interesting.

Johnny Heald认为,对于从一个广泛民调中获取资料的民意分析人员来说,这是可以接受的,因为这经常让人感兴趣。

 

But he says: "What you should always do is say: 'Caution - this is a low base size.'

不过他说:“你应该不断说明‘小心——这个调查可靠性低。’”

 

"The problem comes when people interpret it to be representative of a country.

“当有人用这个结果来解释那个国家时,问题就上门了。”

 

"And I think in defence of YouGov, they don't claim the poll is nationally representative of what Syrians think.

“同时我想为调查公司YouGov说句话,他们没有宣称这一民调结果代表了叙利亚全国民众的想法。”

 

"They have just pulled out the Syrian numbers and because it is an interesting story and somewhat controversial, I think the journalists jumped on it and ran with it, without thinking about the science behind how they came to that figure."

“他们只是提出了来自叙利亚受访者的人数,因为这个事情让人感兴趣,还有这么一点儿争议。我认为,那些报道引用这个民调数字的记者们并没有考虑如何得出这一结果的相关知识。”

 

 

President Bashar al-Assad has called a referendum on a new constitution this weekend

本周末,总统巴沙尔·阿萨德呼吁进行新宪法的公投。 

 

(Mis)interpreting data

信息的解读和误读

 

• More than 1,000 people from 18 countries in the Middle East responded to YouGov Siraj's internet poll question: "In your opinion, should Syria's President Assad resign?"

调查机构YouGov Siraj进行网上调查,问题是“在你看来,阿萨德是否应该辞职?”,受访者遍布中东地区18个国家,人数超过1,000人。

 

• 81% of answered Yes

81%的受访者表示他应该下台。

 

• 55% of respondents in Syria said they thought the president should stay

55%的来自叙利亚的受访者表示,他们认为总统应该留下。

 

BUT

然而

 

• Only 98 respondents were actually from Syria

来自叙利亚受访者的人数只有98人。

 

• Only 18% of people in Syria have access to the internet

叙利亚只有18%的人可以上网。 

 

Source: YouGov Siraj internet survey

调查公司YouGov Siraj的网上调查报告

 

http://clients.squareeye.net/uploads/doha/polling/YouGovSirajDoha Debates- President Assad report.pdf

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